martinagrabovszky

Boy, do I enjoy that time each year when this volume comes out. Possibly most interesting to me is the PECOTA projection--the estimate of each player in the major league's estimated performance for the coming year. What makes this so much fun, of course, is that you can compare the player's actual performance with this volume's projection. Such information can keep "hot stove league" discussion warm indeed! A couple key case studies to illustrate. . . . Derek Jeter had a subpar year. Is this the beginning of the end? Or just an off year? This volume notes that his fielding is diminishing and his hitting appears to be on a downward slide. The projection for hitting: .281 batting average (a bit better than last year, but well below his career norm), .348 on base percentage (below average for the past handful of years). So, is the new contract worth this level of performance? Let each reader make his/her own decision on that matter. What about Philadelphia's acquisition of Cliff Lee for their pitching staff? His projected performance: 13-7 win-loss record and a 3.17 ERA. Now, to the point. I am a Chicago White Sox fan. Gordon Beckham started off horrifically last year, but--with a solid finish--had halfway decent numbers. What of 2011? .266 batting average (an improvement, but not up to earlier performance levels). Paul Konerko was a wonder in 2010. For 2011? projected to hit .272 with a slugging percentage of .481. 28 homers and 84 RBIs. There is, though, a 34% chance of a collapse in performance (he is 35) and a 0% chance of improvement over last year. Mark Buehrle has been a pitching stalwart. He is projected to be 12-12 with a 4.91 ERA. Not stellar stuff. 12% chance of improvement over last year, a scary 40% chance of collapse in performance, and a 12% chance of attrition. As always, a lot of fun perusing this volume. . . . If you are a figure filbert, you will probably enjoy this.

2023-06-07 10:17